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  Current Conditions
68.1°F  Colder 1.7°F than last hour.
Feels like 68°F
Comfy
 
High Today of: 76.2°F @ 00:00
Low Today of: 68.1°F @ 04:49

Humidity: 70 % Increased 2.0% since last hour.
Dew Point: 57.9°F Decreased 0.8°F since last hour.
Barometer: 29.857 inHg  
Wind:  SE @ 0.0
Gusting to: 1.0 mph
 
Rain Today: 0.00 in
Rain Yesterday: 0.00 in
This Month: 0.00 in
73 Days without rain
 
Solar: 0 W/m2
UV: 0.0    None 
 
  Sun / Moon
Sunrise: 6:29am
Sunset: 7:53pm
Moonrise: 8:29am
Moonset: 9:12pm
 
  California Extremes
High
110°F at Palm Springs Rgnl, CA
110°F at Thermal, CA
Low
40°F at Mammoth/June Lakes, CA
Precip
0.40in at Alturas, CA
 
 


NWS CPC Near Term Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Long Term Outlooks


6 Day to 3 Month Temperature Outlook
Click for Precipitation Outlook
Days 6-10 | Days 8-14 | One Month | Three Month

(Mouse over a link to display a new chart.)

Day 1

Click for Precipitation Outlook


Maps and Data Courtesy of NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center.
  Prognostic Discussion

000
FXUS06 KWBC 221932
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 22 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2017

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN FOR NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS 
TIME OF YEAR IS PREDICTED WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND 
TROUGHS ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS 
(INCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GFS) ALSO BRING SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY TOWARD THE 
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST DOMAIN BUT HIGH OVER THE GREAT LEAKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND MUCH 
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. 

RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
WESTERN CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, 
LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE 
EASTERN CONUS. FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TROUGH 
FORECAST OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE 
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE THE GULF COAST REGION EXTENDING 
NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE TROUGH, ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND 
AND POTENTIAL INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TILTS THE 
ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. RIDGING LEADS TO 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO POTENTIAL 
ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE 
PERIOD. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE 
WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND 
ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW. 
 

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF 
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF 
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 
 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO 
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST DOMAIN.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2017 

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 
ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN 
MAINLAND ALASKA. RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND HEIGHTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL 
CONUS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE ENSEMBLE 
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE 
ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERN 
ALASKA.

THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR 
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH 
ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES RESTRICTED TO PARTS OF THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS 
ELEVATE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE 
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED 
NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

RIDGING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH 
OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A MEAN TROUGH TILTS THE ODDS TO 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE 
REGION. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LEADS TO 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND 
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR 
PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW. 

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 
11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF 
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE 
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FORECASTER: SCOTT H

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS 
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW 
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST 
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING 
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST 
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL 
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY 
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY 
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A 
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. 
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
SEPTEMBER 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19530812 - 19580905 - 19660902 - 19800903 - 19910802


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19530812 - 19580904 - 19800902 - 19910801 - 19660901


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N     
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N     
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B     
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B     
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N     
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B     
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    B     
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    N     
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A     
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N     
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    B     
MASS        N    B     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    N    N     
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    A     
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N     
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    A     
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N     
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  A    A     
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A     
 
                           

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A     
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    N     
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B     
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N     
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N     
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    N     
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B     
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A     
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A     
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A     
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A     
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    B    A     
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A     
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N     
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    A     
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$