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Fire Weather Outlook Day 1


Day 2 Outlook >


000
FNUS21 KWNS 201622
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

...Coastal Ranges of Southern California...
Cold front currently moving through central CA is expected to
continue southward/southeastward across the southern CA. As a
result, surface pressure gradient is expected to increase across the
region with the LAX-BFL gradient likely near -4 mb by this evening.
This strong gradient coupled with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft
will support gusty Sundowner winds across the higher terrain of
Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. These gusty winds
will likely persist throughout much of the night. Relatively cool
temperatures should keep minimum RH values around 20-25% but strong
winds (i.e. gusts up to 40-50 mph) and modestly dry fuels will
support an elevated fire weather threat.

...Eastern WY, Western SD, and Southeastern MT...
Widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
still anticipated this afternoon as southwesterly winds around 20
mph occur amidst very warm temperatures (i.e. highs near 80; 20-25
degrees above-average) and RH values from 15 to 25%. The strongest
winds (i.e. sustained 20-30 mph) are expected to remain farther west
over the higher terrain where temperatures are a bit cooler and
fuels are less favorable for fire spread. Lowest RH values (i.e.
around 12-15%) are expected across southeastern MT but a more lax
pressure gradient in this area will keep wind speeds a bit lower
than areas farther south.

..Mosier.. 10/20/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

...Synopsis...
A powerful long-wave trough will migrate eastward across the
Intermountain West today while spreading strong mid-level flow from
California to the Four Corners region and northeastward into the
northern High Plains.  At the surface, a north-south oriented trough
will sharpen across the northern High Plains while shifting eastward
into the Dakotas.  Downslope flow west of this trough will enhance
fire weather concerns.  Farther west, a stout area of high pressure
will build into the western Great Basin and foster a favorable
pressure gradient for offshore flow and attendant fire weather
concerns across southern California.

...Eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and southeastern
Montana...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region (in
response to strengthening lee trough just east of the region) will
foster strengthening westerly surface flow - approaching 20 mph with
stronger gusts during peak heating hours.  RH values will fall into
the 19-25% range as a result of insolation and unseasonably warm
surface temperatures, perhaps reaching 80F in a few locations. 
Widespread areas of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions will develop across the region as latest fuels guidance
suggest favorable conditions for rapid fire spread.  Some part of
this region may need to be upgraded to critical later - especially
if later high-resolution guidance depicts more widespread critical
fire weather conditions than currently depicted.

...Coastal Ranges of Southern California...
Low-level flow will eventually veer to northerly/northwesterly
during the afternoon hours in response to an increasing surface
pressure gradient across the region.  Relatively cool surface
temperatures (50s F to near 70s F) will aid in keeping RH values
above critical thresholds (i.e., 20-30%) across the area, although
surface wind speeds will reach and locally exceed 20-25 mph
especially in terrain-favored areas.  Pockets of elevated fire
weather conditions will develop during the afternoon and persist
into the evening.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$